For those who, unlike me, follow every single Satoshi’s worth you may have noticed a steady but marked climb in the price of bitcoin over the last 2+ years. I find this interesting as it has outpaced the growth in other “value holding” assets such as Gold or in many cases Real Property. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have a theory that a large number of consumers have turned to the growth of bitcoin as a hedge against rising prices generally. And some, although fewer, have used it as a high return savings account hoping for a time when interest rates would again fall to more natural levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Given the (we can argue on how likely it is to happen) expectation that The U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates for the first time in around a year sometime this month (September 2024) financed assets should become less expensive month to month. I believe that a large amount of Bitcoin being held as an inflation hedge will be liquidated and poured back into real assets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
This leads indirectly to a conclusion that we will see at least a 20% price correction in the market if rates continue dropping, starting at 250bp\/qtr for the next year finally leveling off around 3.74% around this time next year. This will drastically lower monthly payments and for those who see it coming this will be a clear signal to collateralize some of their BTC gains from the last 2 years. This money will move into the financing of downpayments for mortgaged properties ultimately re-stabilizing the Real Property market after a marginal, say 8% price correction coming around Oct 10th. This price correction will signal a short but bitter bidding bonanza from private equity and HNWI to buy up the available assets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
After this massive “buy-back” the Real asset prices will again climb up around 14% over the next 18-24 months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What does this mean for BTC HODLer’s? Well it means the opportunity to buy-the-dip yet again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TL;DR, internet rando writing nonsense, move along.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
P.P.S, not advice, not your friend, not your advisor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
For those who, unlike me, follow every single Satoshi’s worth you may have noticed a steady but marked climb in the price of bitcoin over the last 2+ years. I find this interesting as it has outpaced the growth in other “value holding” assets such as Gold or in many cases Real Property. I have […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2,3,4,8,9,12,13,14],"class_list":["post-74","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoun","tag-btc","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-rate-cut","tag-rate-cuts","tag-real-property"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=74"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=74"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=74"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lukelane124.io\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=74"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}